st because the market hasn't rallied as mu

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So we have had a view since we put out our 2018 outlook that Nike Air Force 1 Womens we are late cycle and — but I think it requires a bit of a qualifier. I think it's later in time terms, maybe not so late in temperature terms or — you know, later in calendar but not character. Whatever, you know, fun way you want to describe it.That said, I think we are now starting to see even some of the character of the economic cycle suggests that we are late, not just a function of how long this one has gone on. I think we Nike Air Zoom Spiridon Mujer are, maybe not yet in, but moving into, the third out of four phases of the economy.When you first come out of a recession you have accelerating growth but still decelerating inflation and that allows monetary policy to stay really loose and then you move into the phase where both growth and inflation are accelerating, but the Fed tends to be earlier in their cycle, so it doesn't choke off the recovery.I think we Nike Air Presto Womens have to be mindful of a move into the third phase which is when growth decelerates but you still have accelerating inflation,Adidas Superstar Femme and it puts the Fed in a little bit of a trickier spot because they may have to continue to tighten into the inflation problem potentially, all the while growth is slowing.
Silverstein: And what do you think for the market lookout? Where are stock valuations and how much Nike Air Pegasus 89 Womens of it has to do with the economy?Overall, valuations are not excessive. Some of the longer term measures, things like the Buffett model, market cap to GNP, certainly things like Shiller's CAP E. I question the value of that as a short term market indicator, but I think it tells you that long-term returns are unlikely to match what they've been, say in this cycle so far.But we're not in an environment that allows for valuation expansion. In fact, much has been said about the huge surge in earnings that we've seen this year, which is probably not over, but valuations have actually compressed this year and it's not just because the market hasn't rallied as much as profits have increased. I just think the overall background conditions are not supportive of an environment of valuation expansion, which in turn means you need to continue Nike Air Vapormax Womens to see decent earnings growth to support the market, because you're not going to get it by the background that suggests valuation expansion can Nike Roshe Run Womens happen on its own. And earnings still look great.
I think we have to be mindful of a peak in the earnings growth rate, not a peak in earnings but a peak in Nike Air Max 90 Womensearnings growth rate, and a worry that maybe the expectations bar has gotten set a little bit too high and/or extrapolated too far into the future.Silverstein: And what is the relationship between economic growth and the stock market?Sonders: This — I must say, this represents,Adidas ZX Flux Womens in my mind, one of the biggest mistakes that investors often make at inflection points in both the economy and the market. So Nike Air Max 95 Mujerwe're all taught about the market as a leading indicator and it tends to move in advance of big shifts in the economy. Bear markets tend to occur in conjunction with recession but they tend to start before recession.By nature of the fact that the market is a discounting mechanism, Nike Roshe Run Womens almost always at a market top, the economic data is fantastic. Which is why I — one of my kind of catchphrases for years, decades, has been: when it comes Adidas ZX Flux Womens to the relationship between economic fundamentals and the stock market, better or worse matters more than good or bad. So understanding that it's rate of change, it's the market's ability to sniff out an inflection point.
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